Rise of US Oil and Gas Output

In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the US accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. The agency said that demand growth through 2025 should be driven by China and from the late 2020’s to 2040 by India and the Middle East. The report also highlighted that governments will have a very critical role to play in determining the future of energy systems and policies.

The application of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has propelled US’s position as a major player in the oil and gas industry. The boom of shale oil and LNG exports has helped US transition from a net importer to a net exporter of energy. Earlier this month the US Energy Department said that US oil production had climbed to a record 11.3 million barrels per day. Roughly half of this can be accounted towards oil produced from shale plays.

Fig 1. US Field Production of Crude Oil

Sources

World Energy Outlook Report, IEA EIA Website

WSJ: "Don't Get Complacent About Natural Gas."

American underground natural gas reserves are reported to sit some 24% lower year-over-year and 20% lower than the five year average this August. The Wall Street Journal warns these conditions could foreshadow a winter of strained supply and ballooning prices.

The market's hubris is to blame, the author implies:

“The main reason traders are so sanguine is that the U.S. has been in a natural-gas glut for the past decade.”

The ongoing natural gas surplus might turn out to be short-lived, after all.